Small Arms Mass Destruction

I posted a useful visual on twitter and thought I should share the same here. So below is a Small Arms Mass Destruction chart, part of the PBS series on Women, War & Peace. Synthesizing some of the bigger picture facts about small arms, the chart looks at common weapon types, civilian versus military ownership, the illicit flow of arms, and small arms casualties globally. Below the image, I share a couple of thoughts and reactions.

• The flow of illicit arms section made me wonder if there is any project globally tracking hot zones for diversion, theft, or illicit transferring of small arms. The example given focuses on Sudan, and there are other known hot zones in Africa and across the globe. It would be fascinating to see where in the world arms smugglers mark their comfort zones. It would seem natural if the patterns emerging from such a global flow study ended up pointing to states rampant with corruption, states lacking infrastructure, and states with the weakest policing and law enforcement but it would be worth finding out if such hypotheses are backed by the data. Such a study would also be useful in understanding the global pattern because flow direction can often indicate origin and destination – which can be crucial to uprooting or terminating the illegal arms trade (if I can momentarily lapse into optimism). The challenge, of course, is information itself – its accessibility; its availability; its quality. (Black market data may not exactly be the easiest to crowdsource, after all.)
• I was highly surprised that after the U.S., Yemen had the highest firearm to population ratio – an astounding 5.9 guns to every 10 residents. Keep in mind though, this may not translate to 59% of the population being armed. It may, of course. But, more likely, those that are armed are in possession of multiple weapons. Also keep in mind the three violent groups in Yemen: the Houthi rebels, the Southern secessionists, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). These groups certainly add fuel to the fire; the end result being armed violence – regardless of whether local individuals and tribes are taking up arms for or against their causes.
• As a sidenote, the chart does not specify but I believe the ownership statistics are based on registered firearms since it is nearly impossible to count illegal arms (especially in conflict zones). If this is true, Yemen’s 5.9/10 ratio is even more jarring. Who knows what else is out there…
• Final point: the global epidemic map made me pause to rethink some of my assumptions. Though it is limited to the 2004-09 period, I was struck by Afghanistan’s categorization in the middle of the death rate scale. According to this data, in Afghanistan an average of 10-20 of every 100,000 people died from small arms violence in Afghanistan (and that too, for five years before the 2009 U.S. troop surge). This number, unfortunately, seems a low estimate at best.
• Overall, the rest of the global picture makes more sense from region to region. Western countries and Southern parts of Latin America see the least deaths from small arms violence. The usual suspects such as Colombia and Sudan end up with some of the highest number of small arms casualties. That Guatemala and South Africa ranked in the highest category of death rates was, however, a bit surprising for me. I suppose media reporting bias affects all of our perceptions to some extent…

smallarmssasia