Guns Galore, Solutions Scarce

The Pakistan Muslim League (a political party) caught my eye the other day with an intriguing post on Guns Galore on their blog. Moving beyond my confused expression upon discovery of such a blog, I found the post surprisingly candid. I do not know how reliable its claims are or what its internal or public sources might be. However, I will be generous for a moment and give them the benefit of the doubt (but read quickly; this may literally only last a moment). If there is any validity to these statistics, the problem is even more rampant than imagined. A few lines particularly jumped out at me:

We have laws to regulate gun ownership and usage but they are widely flouted, and anybody who really wants a gun and has the money and contacts can be armed and dangerous within hours – minutes in some areas. Our elected representatives to federal and provincial assemblies all have a “quota” of firearms licences that they can issue to favoured constituents, and there are any number of “security guards” who tote a range of weaponry with an indifferent set of skills when it comes to usage. Add to this the millions of weapons that are in private hands, unlicensed and undeclared but lying under beds or in cupboards against domestic intrusion or just to keep handy in case of trouble, and you have a population that is armed out of all proportion to the need to physically protect itself. The recent case of “mis-declaration” is one of a chain stretching back years, has the connivance of “influentials” and corrupt customs officials and is unlikely to be broken by any half-hearted “investigation”.

What is surprising about this besides the colorful language? The accelerating speed of acquisition. The existence and admittance of a quota system. The trend of unlicensed private ownership (assumed here to refer to non-combatants and non-militants) despite the provisions for legal ownership. And not least of all, the acknowledgement of a population that “is armed out of all proportion to the need to physically protect itself.” If these are recognized problems, where are the efforts to address them? What am I missing here? Violence begets more violence and for many in India and Pakistan, escaping the vicious cycle is implausible or impossible if it dares to threaten their survival. The governments complain about insecurities arising from their neighbors (ie, each other) and yet it is the inability of these governments to effectively cut this cycle that actually further solidifies it for locals in far off villages. If the government cannot assure your security on a general level, if you have to answer to violent actors with nowhere else to go, if you are driven to acquire illegal guns just in case… Well what is the answer then?

smallarmssasia

Old News That Remains New (I)

Over the next few posts – and every now and then – I will be digging through news archives and posting some interesting pieces. Some of these will go back a couple of years and some will go back a few months. Nonetheless, these pieces have proven their continued relevance and are being posted to contextualize current trends and events. I hope readers will find these as worthy of attention as I do. Let’s begin with a 2009 piece on the Taliban’s acquisition of small arms…

 

 

In September 2009, Danger Room reported that the Taliban Seeks Rifles with More ‘Punch’. Danger Room’s reporting was based on Ghaith Abdul-Ahad’s article in The Guardian: Trade in Guns & Drugs that Fuels War in Afghanistan. Abdul-Ahad sat down with Hekmat, an ordinary local shop-owner who made his real fortunes as a drug and weapons smuggler (compliments of the ongoing war in Afghanistan).

According to Hekmat, a monthly supply of $20,000 in weapons easily gets him $5,000 in profits. That’s a 25% profit margin on a monthly basis – no small amount for a villager in a country ripped to poverty over decades. And the majority of money does not come from the most common weapon, the AK-47 – the traditional Kalashnikov. These are actually one of the cheapest and most easily acquired (especially from the Chinese), costing a mere $400 a piece – perhaps explaining their decades of popularity among Taliban foot soldiers.

The higher profits come from the Kalakov, essentially a modernized AK-47 with smaller bullets and a lighter frame. Why the update? Hekmat observes that the Taliban now prefer the Kalakov because of its ability to pierce body armor. They are acquired for $700 and sold for $1,100 by sellers like Hekmat. One can discern the increasing demand in the increased sale price in a single year – they used to sell at $700 in Afghanistan.

The destruction of war is not so destructive for Afghans behind the illegal arms trade. Hekmat has no shame in declaring, “Yes, war is very good for business.” The police are no obstacle to this growing market either: “They take their cut. The border police chief is a smuggler himself, and no one can do smuggling without his knowledge.” It doesn’t seem far-fetched, then, for Abdul-Ahad to conclude that the real dangers of smuggling were in not being well-connected.

The lessons here are not trivial. With a better understanding of smugglers’ cost-benefit analysis, international efforts may find better approaches to disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) programs in Afghanistan. From a smuggler’s perspective, perhaps the risks and dangers of trafficking are entirely worth the profits and sustenance it can lead to. If that is true, then changing this cost-benefit calculus will be key for addressing the problem. And needless to say, better solutions to the problem of arms smuggling in Afghanistan will greatly affect the entire illegal arms trade in South Asia, especially in Pakistan.

smallarmssasia

Some Useful General Resources

Now seems like a good time to share some initial resources I have come across as well as some interesting background reading materials. Where possible, links are provided. Two quick disclaimers: (1) the sources below are chosen for a broad background understanding on the global issue; and (2) this in no way claims to be a comprehensive list, but it is a start.

Please feel free to add to my list in the comments section if you can share key general sources I may have missed (or not yet discovered). If you wish to add South Asia specific items, you may prefer to wait for my forthcoming post with more focused sources. Until then, happy reading.

Some General Blogs & Online Information Portals:

• Norwegian Initiative on Small Arms Transfers (NISAT) blog
• Link: NISAT blog
• Comments: NISAT is a reliable informational resource on the small arms trade. Other than its research component, the organization also runs a useful blog on small arms issues and news.

• Arms Control NOW – The Arms Control Association blog
• Link: Arms Control NOW
• Comments: The Arms Control Association is one of the original actors in the international movement against the illegal small arms trade. Its blog provides news and expert commentary on issues and progress. It is relevant for its first hand involvement as well as its immediate news releases.

• Small Arms Monitor
• Link: Small Arms Monitor
• Comments: Small Arms Monitor is a good resource for its “NGO reporting on the biennial meeting of states on small arms and light weapons.” Unlike other resources with vast pools of information on diverse issue areas, Small Arms Monitor is useful for its focused reporting on state policy changes and progress.        

• International Action Network on Small Arms (IANSA)
• Link: IANSA
• Comments: IANSA considers itself a “global movement against gun violence” and has proved to be a critical actor. In itself, IANSA can serve as a beneficial case study in itself, especially for measuring goals and effectiveness. Additionally, the organization provides access to a great deal of background information and research.

• United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)
• Link: UNIDIR
• Comments: The UN is one of the most critical actors tying various regional networks together in the larger transnational network on the issue of small arms. UNIDIR serves as a support center and resource, with “action-oriented research [bringing] together perspectives on national, regional and international security, disarmament and development with a fundamental focus on human security.” One of the many relevant sub-pages of the UNIDIR website has valuable reports from its past research projects, ranging from Mapping Illicit Small Arms Trafficking in 2000 to Fixing the Broken Disarmament Machinery in 2010.

• Small Arms Survey
• Link: Small Arms Survey
• Comments: Small Arms Survey is one of the leading informational resources on the transnational advocacy network on small arms. It is widely accepted as one of the primary sources for tracking data and conflict related to small arms and its evidence is often used in reports and papers on the topic. 

Some General Books & Papers:

• Marsh, Nicholas. “Two Sides of the Same Coin? The Legal and Illegal Trade in Small Arms.” The Brown Journal of World Affairs. Spring 2002.
• Link: Two Sides of the Same Coin
• Comments: This may be one of the best introductory papers I’ve read on the subject of separating the legal and illegal small arms trade. It begins with an often forgotten fact – that many of today’s illegal weapons were originally made and sold legally. With an interesting structure, the paper gives readers a brief overview of the legal and illegal markets before concentrating on the gray market and ending with a few basic recommendations.

• Holtom, Paul and Mark Bromley. “The International Arms Trade: Difficult to Define, Measure, and Control.” Arms Control Association. August 2010.
• Link: The International Arms Trade
• Comments: Taking an interesting approach, this report looks at the relatively small effects of the global economic crisis on the international arms trade. It addresses arms trade trends in recent years as well as trade control efforts. Though much is yet to be learned about the real impacts of deteriorating global economic conditions on the illegal arms markets, this paper serves as an excellent base.

• “Arms Without Borders: Why a Globalised Trade Needs Global Controls.” Control Arms Campaign. October 2006.
• Link: Arms Without Borders
• Comments: This paper addresses the loopholes in the international production of small arms, where many such weapons disappear into the wrong hands due to very fluid and loose regulations on the production side. Instead of the traditional approach of tightening trade treaties, this paper advocates nipping the issue in the bud. This is an area of concern that deserves at least as much attention going forward as the development of a global treaty.

• “A Destruction Handbook – Small Arms, Light Weapons, Ammunition and Explosives.” United Nations Department for Disarmament Affairs. 2001.
• Link: A Destruction Handbook
• Comments: To move away from theory and gain a more tangible picture of what can be done to curb illicit small arms violence, it is worth skimming this UN handbook. It begins with an overview of the problem before concretely presenting methods of destruction for small arms, among other weapons and explosives. I found that reading this kind of practical guide added color to my knowledge on actual and immediate steps governments can take.

• “Guns Out of Control: The Continuing Threat of Small Arms.” IRIN In-Depth Report. Integrated Regional Information Networks. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. May 2006.
• Link: Guns Out of Control
• Comments: This in-depth report gives a good briefing on several states in Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Central Asia, and South Asia. The report also includes interviews with the UN Special Rapporteur on the prevention of human rights violations committed with small arms and light weapons; the Director of IANSA; the Manager of the Human Security and Small Arms Programme at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue; and two former soldiers of the Ugandan Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) engaged in several years of illicit small arms violence. Though many of the countries covered in the report are outside the direct focus of this blog, they give good context for the global situation.

• “Shooting Down the MDGs – How Irresponsible Arms Transfers Undermine Development Goals.” Oxfam Briefing Paper No. 120. Oxfam International. October 2008.
• Link: Shooting Down the MDGs
• Comments: This paper is not opposed to legal trade and transfers of weapons between countries. It recognizes a state’s legitimate right to defend itself. However, the paper notes that irresponsible transfers can fuel local conflicts and slow development progress. Accordingly, it presents an in-depth analysis and advocates for a robust global Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) with tougher enforcement and better controls on the international arm trade. This, according to the authors, would be a momentous step towards sealing some of the many loopholes that place ammunition in the wrong hands.

• Grimmett, Richard F. “Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 2003-2010.” Congressional Research Service. September 2011.
• Link: Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations
• Comments: Those of us in the research community know that CRS often presents some of the most comprehensive reports and this is one of them. Updated annually, this latest congressional report examines general trends in global arms transfers before focusing on developing nations. The emphasis is on legal arms transfers, sales, and agreements. However, understanding the legal market is somewhat of a prerequisite to investigating the illegal market.

• Potter, Matt. Outlaws Inc. Bloombury USA: New York, 2011.
• Comments: This recently released book was written by a journalist that traveled with ex-Soviet soldiers who now use their skills and resources to smuggle arms and other illegal goods within the international black market. It offers insight on the perspectives and motives of the sellers propagating the arms black market and confirms that money – not violence itself – is often the endgame for the proliferators.

• Garcia, Denise. “Small Arms and Security: New Emerging International Norms.” Routledge: New York, 2006.
• Comments: This book systematically studies the trends in international norms governing the proliferation of small arms. It is helpful for understanding current patterns in global practices and shared norms in the international movement.

smallarmssasia